The longer the Russian response to the Ukrainian (?) attack against strategic bombers deep in Russian territory and (again) on the Crimean bridge takes, the more we are worried! It seems that we are at a turning point in the military conflict in Ukraine, which even if the worst scenarios are not confirmed, will have a significant impact on developments from now on. The developments are a disastrous refutation of those who were in a hurry to make the reality of a conflict with global stakes match their neat analyses, those who cannot see, behind diplomacy and war, the strategic aspirations of the imperialists and continue to get lost in the distractions, diplomatic maneuvers and the so-called « nice atmosphere » between Trump and Putin…
It was not out of the blue.
For those who closely follow the developments in the conflict between Russian imperialism and the US-NATO actor Zelensky, these developments were not out of the blue. It was preceded by very massive Russian drone and missile attacks on military infrastructure and personnel of the Kiev regime, while at some of the critical points on the front line the slow advance of the Russian army continued unabated. In fact, based on the continuation of attacks in the Russian border areas of Kursk and Belgorod, the Russian leadership announced the creation of a demilitarized zone in the neighboring Ukrainian areas of Kharkov and Sumy with all that this implies for the intensification of military operations.
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The statement by the new German Chancellor, Merz, that he will send the Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine and that « there is no longer any range limit whatsoever for weapons delivered to Ukraine, either by Britain or by France, by us, or by the Americans », sharply increased Russian reactions, which even went as far as threats to target their production plants, and warned that this development constituted a direct involvement of Germany in the war. Even Trump’s statements, regarding the Russian attacks, that « what Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, a lot of really bad things would have already happened in Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire! » did not go unanswered. Medvedev went on to make a very dangerous statement « I know only one thing that is truly evil and that is World War III, I hope Trump understands that ».
German imperialism, because of the serious threats and warnings from Russia and internal reactions after the two steps forward, took a step backwards regarding the Taurus mission and the « liberation » of the range limits of Western weapons, chose strategic ambiguity on the issue and talked about the co-production of long-range weapons by Germany and Ukraine! Both the moves of German imperialism and the change of style of the administration of American imperialism foreshadowed what was to follow!
Not coincidentally also, Russian media, in the same period, revealed (with or without quotes) that at the end of March in a secret meeting in Kiev, the head of SAG-U (SecurityAssistanceGroup-Ukraine), i.e. the coordination center based in Wiesbaden in Germany for all US military aid to Ukraine, agreed with the Ukrainian leadership on the demobilization of the old leadership of the Ukrainian army (which took place the very next day! ), the establishment of a new corps in the army for drones under American guidance, and Ukraine’s informal membership in NATO! All this at the same time that Keith Kellogg was stating that he thought Russia’s concerns about NATO’s expansion to the East were legitimate.
The asymmetric « Ukrainian » attack and the negotiations for … peace!
On 1 June, a Russian missile massively kills a gathering of Ukrainian soldiers in Sumy, resulting in the removal of the Ukrainian officer in charge. A few hours later, and after sabotaging two railway lines in the Kursk region, the first news of a large-scale asymmetric attack by the Kiev regime deep into Russian territory, prepared for a year and a half according to Zelensky, comes to light. According to the data so far, there was an attack with drones stored in wooden boxes inside Russian territory, in which Russian networks were used to connect to navigation centers in Ukraine and hit coordinated air military bases on which were stationed, among other things, the strategic bombers of Russia’s so-called nuclear deterrent triad (the other two components of the nuclear deterrent triad are intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear-armed submarines).
To give an overview, the airfields targeted in the attack were Belaya in Irkutsk, about 4,500 kilometres from Ukraine’s border with Russia, and the Diaghilev base in Razan in western Russia, about 520 kilometres from Ukraine, which is a training centre for Russia’s strategic bombers. Also hit were the Olenia base located more than 2,000 kilometres from Ukraine, and the Ivanovo base (for Russian military transport aircraft) located more than 800 kilometres from Ukraine. The Kiev regime, while initially talking about twelve, has now raised the number to 40 aircraft that were completely or partially destroyed, while the analysis of satellite images so far indicates eight aircraft. All the characteristics and the quality of the operation show that it was led by the ‘competent’ services of an imperialist country or countries. Some point to Britain, but the US (with the Trump administration stating that it knew nothing!) or some centres in the US are probably the orchestrator of such a wide-ranging move and in any case it is unlikely that the US was unaware.
What’s next?
But who or what are the targets of the attacks? What is obvious is what the Kiev regime has said, that the cost to Russia must be raised in order for it to make concessions in the negotiations. It makes political sense, it fits with Trump’s tactics but is that all? Or is it a clear indication that Kiev’s transatlantic bosses, having tried through negotiations to modify the terms of the war, are seeing the impasse in that effort and are paving the way for a new even greater and even more dangerous escalation? That is, to put into practice Trump’s statement that Russia is « playing with fire »! Equally dangerous, however, is that this can be read the other way round: the US and NATO are playing with fire that can lead to terrifying situations for the peoples.
It is certain that the Russian leadership is examining the objective and subjective factors of the vulnerabilities of the defense system of the Russian territory and will have to take measures to address them. If in the medium term this is perhaps the main focus, in the short term, what it is now considering is the size and characteristics of the response it will provide. This is primarily a political rather than a military issue and will be contextualized by the Russian leadership’s political assessments of the moves first and foremost of the US, and secondarily of the other Western and Kiev powers and the relations and antagonisms between them. Of course, the kind of anti-secession that may be caused by its response will be taken into account. However, Russia has little room for not responding. On the purely military front, much is, of course, being written about tactical nuclear weapons, although most analysts believe that the Russian leadership has a number of weapons of mass destruction such as Oresnik in its hands and does not need to resort to a nuclear response. A second evaluation concerns targets, with several converging on critical factories in the military-industrial complex as well as major transportation infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the murderous NATO alliance, apart from the big exercise « Defender 25 », is also conducting the annual BALTOPS exercise in the Baltic Sea, with a reinforced military presence, to the point that the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister called it a « war rehearsal » of NATO against Russia. Otherwise, Zelensky has been given marching orders… sorry, an invitation to the forthcoming NATO summit on 24-26 June. The worst is yet to come…